Fractal Pensive Ziztur
Freedom of the Mind.
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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Coincidences

Brief IM log snippet:
(10:20:50 AM) David: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obIGsb-IZMo&feature=user
(10:22:11 AM) Petter: I paused my music to check that out.
(10:22:28 AM) Petter: In a rather amusing coincidence, the song I paused was a song by Tom Lehrer called "New Math".
(10:22:40 AM) David: wow, what are the odds? ;)
(10:23:10 AM) Petter: Probably inversely proportional to the frequency with which such remarkable coincidences happen to me.
Other peculiar coincidences of my life:

  • At a lake, swimming with a friend; we see a column of smoke rising from nearby and make jokes along the lines of I guess I shouldn't have planted that car bomb (yeah, yeah; we were about fourteen). Heading home, we pass the source of the smoke; the burning wreck of a car.

  • The weirdest one: Playing a role playing game with a friend (same friend, incidentally). The setting is a sci fi one; the game…kind of superhero-ish, a bit like Batman with a lot more guns. Having broken up some crime or other, the hero fires a few rounds into the air to attract the attention of the authorities as he makes his sortie. You accidentally shoot out a streetlight, I declare. Annoyed, he says something to the effect of Oh, come on!, then falls silent as the light bulb in my desk lamp cracks.

  • This is the only time in my life I've seen a light bulb do that; I guess thermal expansion and contraction had slowly worked microscopic cracks to the point where most of the glass bulb fell off and shattered on the desk, leaving the screw-in part in the socket, adorned with some jagged pieces of glass.
Remarkable coincidences like these seem to tempt some people to commit superstition. Me, I like to wonder the following: What are the odds that anyone should go through life without running into at least a few remarkable coincidences? After all, every single day, every one of us experiences many hundred events (using the term loosely), for a grand total of millions of events over a lifetime. On average, therefore, a person should expect to run into at least a couple of coincidences that are literally one in a million rare; coincidences that are one in a thousand, meanwhile, are a dime a dozen—you'll go through thousands of them. Or, in one of my favoite self-coined phrases, Every single day, on Earth, there are half a dozen people having a one-in-a-billion kind of day.

For a more thorough (but very accessible) discussion of this sort of thing, read Richard Dawkins's Unweaving the Rainbow, in particular chapter 7, Unweaving the Uncanny.

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4 Comments:

Anonymous Keith said...

"Every single day there are a half dozen people having a one-in-a-billion day." That's a good one ... you need to get a quote-patent on that ... :-)

July 1, 2009 3:26 PM  
Blogger Ziztur said...

Isn't it [the quote] delicious? I've stolen it several times already - this blog post has been in the queue for about 3 weeks - I kept moving it around.

July 1, 2009 3:29 PM  
Blogger The Beautiful Kind said...

I love coincidences. Makes me feel connected to the universe.

July 1, 2009 4:33 PM  
Blogger Zi said...

I'm not a fan of them, myself; they generally don't go well for me. There was a span of two days in March, where 5 times in a row, I had a pair in the hole which made three of a kind once the flop came. That's about 12.5% probability each, so 5 in a row is 0.0000000596046%.

Four times in a row, someone else had also had a pair in the hole, which made bigger trips than what I had. Which, when you make a set (three of a kind with a pair in the hole and a third on the board) will happen 1.07% of the time. Four times in a row is 0.0000000131080% probability. The fifth time, I also lost too, since given my trips, my opponent still had 15 cards in the deck which would give him a straight or a flush (or a straight flush) with two cards to come, so he was 55% to win and did. So overall, my weekend was a 0.0000000072094% probability.

That's 138708219.4 to 1. A one in a hundred and thirty nine million weekend.

Which cost me my entire poker wallet of about $5000, and kept me out of the game for a good few months living off instant noodles, until I got a friend to inject some capital into my pocket and I could go back to work. Nothing more than an unhappy coincidence, really. I came out of it about as best as one could: never changed the way I play due to unlikely coincidences, even as it became unlikelier and unlikelier, and that's all you can do in poker.

July 2, 2009 3:03 PM  

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